10th Mar 10

Value

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likelihood of winning exceeds the available odds



Another essential part of the service is KNOWING WHAT VALUE IS. It's no use "knowing" a horse will win (because no horse is CERTAIN to win) unless its real chance exceeds the odds available. So if the odds available on the horse is 2/1 it has to have a probability of winning exceeding 0.33, at 3/1 a probability exceeding 0.25 and so on. Similarly you cannot expect every (or even most) recommendations given at 14/1, 16/1 or 20/1 to win, you must expect most of them to LOSE, all you need is that their likelihood of winning exceeds 0.05 (20/1); 0.1 would be good, where 1 in 10 of these won. This is another reason the SMS service has been implemented and made available - you have to receive and back every selection in a timely fashion - it's no use backing all the losers and missing backing the one that wins at a big price, just because you couldn't get through on the phone that day or forgot to ring!

For example, Sunday's Feb 14th SMS read:
"Ocean Legend 3.10 Kempton 1/2 pt win. Take the 11/2 available now with BetFred or Stan James. Likely to start a lot shorter."

The result. Ocean Legend wins 5/2 fav "tracked leaders, ridden to lead 1f out, stayed on under pressure final furlong opened 11/4 touched 3/1. Bets of £900-£300" That is the service we supply
You can view the Sporting Life result...by clicking here.


   


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